A newly released poll has likely Illinois voters choosing Democratic governor candidate J.B. Pritzker over GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner by a margin of 50 percent to 30 percent. Conservative Party candidate Sam McCann had 6 percent, and Libertarian Kash Jackson registered at 3 percent.
Ipsos, a publicly traded research company that does nonpartisan election research in the United States, teamed with Thomson Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics in doing the poll of people in Illinois.
The poll was conducted Sept. 27 through Oct. 5, with online interviews of 2,000 adults from Illinois, including 968 likely voters – among them 492 Democrats and 379 Republicans, with the rest independents or people who didn’t categorize themselves.
Chris Jackson, vice president of Ipsos, said the firm tries to represent what likely turnout will look like, and “we sort of tweak our models every election cycle” to reflect current moods.
The poll results also include results among all adults polled. Those numbers still reflect a significant lead for Pritzker over Rauner, 42 percent to 24 percent.
Ipsos cites the “credibility interval,” which is similar to a margin of error, at plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents, and 3.6 percentage points for likely voters.
Among likely voters statewide, 62 percent said Rauner was a “traditional politician,” and Pritzker got the same rating.
When likely voters were asked to pick, from a list, the most important issue determining their vote, 16 percent picked the economy in general, 15 percent chose health care, 9 percent said Medicare/Medicaid, 8 percent said immigration and 7 percent said taxes.
When likely voters across the state were asked whether they would vote for the Democratic candidate or Republican candidate in their district’s U.S. House race, 57 percent said Democratic, 35 percent said Republican, 3 percent said they would want someone from another party and 6 percent didn’t know or didn’t answer.
Also among likely voters, when asked if the country is headed in the right direction, 63 percent said it is on the wrong track. That includes 92 percent of Democrats and 23 percent of Republicans.
A similar question about the direction of the state of Illinois found 79 percent of likely voters saying it is on the wrong track. That includes 89 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of Republicans.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a newsletter at UVA for which Larry Sabato, director of the center for politics, is editor in chief, states that the Illinois poll reinforces the idea that Democrats are “well on their way to picking up a key gubernatorial seat” on Nov. 6.
“Pritzker has long seemed a favorite against Rauner in a race that the Crystal Ball rates as likely Democratic,” the newsletter said.
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