Kinzinger touts cash advantage
But little is conventional about 16th primary race
Comments (...)STERLING – Will money or experience determine the outcome of the Republican Party primary in the 16th Congressional District?
The conventional wisdom in either regard may be worthless in what a Northern Illinois University political science professor calls an “unusual” race between two incumbent congressmen.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a freshman from Manteno, touted strong fourth-quarter fundraising efforts in his bid to unseat Rep. Don Manzullo.
Kinzinger won the race for campaign cash between September and December, raising $285,906 to Manzullo’s $169,684.
His campaign claimed Wednesday the difference shows how momentum has shifted in the 16th District, which Manzullo has represented for 20 years.
“I think it absolutely shows the support he has,” said Brook Hougesen, a spokeswoman for Kinzinger.
Not necessarily, Manzullo’s campaign said.
Manzullo spokesman Rich Carter pointed out that Manzullo raised $318,000 in the third quarter of 2011, while Kinzinger raised $208,000.
“We also had a very strong month of fundraising in January,” Carter said. “The numbers won’t be updated for another couple weeks.”
Kinzinger, who currently represents the 11th District, announced his candidacy in the redrawn 16th in early October. After redistricting, the 16th includes all of Lee County.
Both campaigns have significant war chests. Manzullo has $522,864 cash-on-hand; Kinzinger has $651,089 available.
Carter said the gap is small enough to make money a nonfactor in the race.
“We have plenty of money to get our message out,” Carter said. “They both have the money. ... The leadership and experience [Manzullo] brings is the key right now.”
But Kinzinger on Wednesday said that experience is working in his favor.
“As they learn about us ... the numbers show that people are turning to a new generation of conservative leader,” he said. “There are benefits to new blood.”
Scot Schraufnagel, assistant professor of political science at NIU, agreed that Manzullo’s longevity may work against him in an anti-incumbent year.
“Every year people talk about an anti-incumbent mood,” he said. “This year is no exception. It’s as palatable as it’s ever been.”
But having an incumbent tested in a primary, Schraufnagel said, is an exception.
“Incumbents that are not engaged in scandals, [are] usually given free rides in the party’s primary,” he said.
“This is a bit unusual.”
Schraufnagel said incumbents traditionally are not challenged in their primary parties, but increasingly, the norms of not challenging an incumbent “don’t hold as much weight anymore.”
Carter called the pairing, forced by redistricting, “unfortunate.”
“The reason they are in this position is because Democrats are trying to wreak havoc and create as dire of a political situation as possible,” he said. “They threw together congressmen.”
While Schraufnagel acknowledges the perception that “fresh blood” in Congress is positive, the reality is more complex, he said.
“A lot of times, people assume that if you get rid of a long-term incumbent, you decrease the power of special interests,” he said.
But, hel said, often new congressmen become more dependent on interest groups for knowledge.
“Green members become more beholden than long-term [members],” he said.
Carter said Manzullo is using his experience as a campaign selling point.
“Manzullo is much more serious about cutting spending and reducing debt,” Carter said. “He has experience and leadership and plans necessary to help put Americans back to work.”
Schraufnagel said Kinzinger’s youth may benefit him in voter turnout.
Schraufnagel said his preliminary research on voter turnout has shown that when the age gap between candidates is larger, the youth vote increases. Kinzinger turns 34 later this month. Manzullo will turn 68 in 4 days after the March 20 primary.
It’s a safe assumption, Schraufnagel said, that more young voters benefits the younger candidate.
– Shaw News Service reporter Jeff Engelhardt contributed to this story.
Candidates debate Feb. 21
U.S. Reps. Adam Kinzinger, R-Manteno, and Don Manzullo, R-Egan, will participate in a Feb. 21 debate sponsored by the Iroquois County Republican Women. The event is at 209 West Oak St., Watseka.
A meet-and-greet with drinks and hors d’oeuvres begins at 6 p.m. The debate is from 6:30 to 7:30 p.m., with a question-and-answer session from 7:30 to 8 p.m.
Email moderator Carl Gerdovich of WGFA radio at carl@wgfaradio.com to submit questions for the debate.
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